Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
Identifieur interne : 000361 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000360; suivant : 000362Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
Auteurs : Stephen M. Kissler [États-Unis] ; Christine Tedijanto [États-Unis] ; Edward Goldstein [États-Unis] ; Yonatan H. Grad [États-Unis] ; Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis]Source :
- Science (New York, N.y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
Url:
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793
PubMed: 32291278
PubMed Central: 7164482
Affiliations:
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period</title><author><name sortKey="Kissler, Stephen M" sort="Kissler, Stephen M" uniqKey="Kissler S" first="Stephen M." last="Kissler">Stephen M. Kissler</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tedijanto, Christine" sort="Tedijanto, Christine" uniqKey="Tedijanto C" first="Christine" last="Tedijanto">Christine Tedijanto</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goldstein, Edward" sort="Goldstein, Edward" uniqKey="Goldstein E" first="Edward" last="Goldstein">Edward Goldstein</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grad, Yonatan H" sort="Grad, Yonatan H" uniqKey="Grad Y" first="Yonatan H." last="Grad">Yonatan H. Grad</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.y.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0036-8075</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory
syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality,
immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data
from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent
wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe
pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social
distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or
intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions,
including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the
success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity.
Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration
of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2
surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as
late as 2024.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Heymann, D L" uniqKey="Heymann D">D. L. Heymann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mackenzie, J X0a S" uniqKey="Mackenzie J">J.
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J. Conover</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L. Simonsen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Moghadas, S X0a M" uniqKey="Moghadas S">S.
M. Moghadas</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Soetaert, K" uniqKey="Soetaert K">K. Soetaert</name></author><author><name sortKey="Petzoldt, T" uniqKey="Petzoldt T">T. Petzoldt</name></author><author><name sortKey="Setzer, R X0a W" uniqKey="Setzer R">R.
W. Setzer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Massachusetts</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Massachusetts"><name sortKey="Kissler, Stephen M" sort="Kissler, Stephen M" uniqKey="Kissler S" first="Stephen M." last="Kissler">Stephen M. Kissler</name></region><name sortKey="Goldstein, Edward" sort="Goldstein, Edward" uniqKey="Goldstein E" first="Edward" last="Goldstein">Edward Goldstein</name><name sortKey="Grad, Yonatan H" sort="Grad, Yonatan H" uniqKey="Grad Y" first="Yonatan H." last="Grad">Yonatan H. Grad</name><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><name sortKey="Tedijanto, Christine" sort="Tedijanto, Christine" uniqKey="Tedijanto C" first="Christine" last="Tedijanto">Christine Tedijanto</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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